How we score analysts' forecasts

Analysts post views, not trades: "Bitcoin is going to 90K", "the bottom is in", "ETH looks bullish". We check every such forecast they post on X against real prices, with the same rules for everyone. This section is separate from our trader leaderboard, which follows trades with an entry and a stop.

What counts as a forecast

A post that says where Bitcoin, Ether or Solana will go: a price target ("going to 90K", "next stop 2,000"), a bottom or a top ("the bottom is in", "75K will hold", "the top is in"), or a direction ("looks bullish", "expect a drop").

Not counted: what already happened, "if this happens, then that" forecasts, ranges, jokes and questions. Forecasts worded only as a possibility ("could", "might", "50/50") are shown on the analyst's page but not counted in the rank.

When a forecast is right

Every forecast is decided by which of two prices comes first: the forecast's goal, or the same distance the other way.

A price target is right if the price reaches the target before it moves the same distance the other way. Said at 80,000, "going to 90,000" is right if 90,000 comes before 70,000, and wrong if 70,000 comes first.

"The bottom is in" is right if the price rises 5% before it falls below the lowest price of the week before the post, or below the level the analyst names. "The top is in" works the other way round.

A direction is right if the price moves 5% that way before it moves 5% the other way.

If the post gives a time ("this week", "by December"), the forecast must also come true within that time. If neither price is reached within 30 days, the forecast gets no result and is not counted.

Most forecasts are decided within a few days. In our first test, half of all price targets were decided within 2 days.

The rank

The rank is the share of an analyst's counted forecasts that were right in the last 3 months. An analyst needs at least 10 counted forecasts to be ranked, and a short record is pulled toward 50%, the score of a coin flip, so a few lucky calls do not put anyone on top.

Next to every record we show how the market moved in the same period. When Bitcoin falls, bearish forecasts look good, and when it rises, bullish ones do, so read the two together.

When the rules change

These rules have a version. If we change them, every forecast already collected is checked again under the new rules, and the ranks change with them. This page always shows the version in use.

Rules version 1 · 6 November 2026. Nothing here is investment advice.